Conclusion

• Upgrading one player by one speed class adds 0.2 - 0.4 wins per season

  • Effect is greater in AL
  • Average to fast > than slow to average
  • Assumes upgrade for all plate appearances, so actual effect likely to be smaller

• Better batters will have a greater effect

• http://www.pankin.com

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Even a more modest improvement in hitting is likely to add more than 0.4 wins (or 0.8 if slow to fast on a high scoring team).

Web site has more on Markov model and other baseball items of interest. May post more details behind the study at some point.