Markov Process Model

• Calculates long-term average number of runs per 9 inn. that a lineup will produce

• Uses situational transition probabilities

• Underlying assumption: advancement of runners of singles, doubles, and avoiding double plays is the same for all players in the lineup

• Allows for “controlled experiment”

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We can control the runner advancement, etc. by changing

the assumptions, so the modeled differences in runs

are attributable only to this assumption. Other things,

(players & batting order) held constant.