Conclusion

• Who’s right?: Possibly La Russa

  • No meaningful effect on modeled runs when pitcher bats 8th
  • Slightly increased chance of men on for Mac
  • McGwire did hit 70, but probably would have hit about the same with normal batting order

• For more on Markov model visit my web site at http://www.pankin.com

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1) ACCORDING TO MODEL, BATTING P 8 DID NOT HURT AND MIGHT HAVE PRODUCED A COUPLE MORE MAC PAs WITH MEN ON, BUT DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL, WITHIN ERROR BOUNDS OF MODEL

2) IN EFFECT, NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PITCHER 8th AND 9th

3) BATTING MAC 4th WOULD NOT INCREASE SCORING AND WOULD REDUCE HIS PAs BY ABOUT 18 PER SEASON, COST 2 HR BASED ON HIS 1998 PA/HR --> GANT NOT RIGHT