INVESTIGATE EFFECTS ON SCORING OF
FAST RUNNERS
TEAM STRIKEOUTS
ADVANCING RUNNER FROM 2nd TO 3rd
PRIMARY RESEARCH TOOL: MARKOV PROCESS MODEL
BASED ON TRANSITION PROBABILITIES BETWEEN THE RUNNERS
& OUTS SITUATIONS
USES MATRIX ALGEBRA TO COMPUTE ALL POSSIBILITIES
FAST ALTERNATIVE TO SIMULATION
CALCULATES LONG-TERM AVERAGE RUNS PER GAME FOR A
SPECIFIED LINEUP
APPLICATIONS:
* EFFECTS OF PLAYER PERFORMANCE ON SCORING
* STRATEGY ANALYSIS
* FINDING THE BEST BATTING ORDER
PLAYERS HIT THE SAME IN ALL SITUATIONS EXCEPT WALK
FREQUENCY ADJUSTED FOR RUNNERS & OUTS SITUATIONS, PITCHER
BATTING NEXT
ADVANCEMENT ON HITS AND OUTS BASED ON BATTER HAND
AND RUNNER SPEED (1984-92 DATA)
DOUBLE PLAYS, REACHING ON ERRORS BASED ON BATTER
HAND, BATTER AND RUNNER SPEEDS (84-92)
WP, PB, BALKS ACCORDING TO 1984-92 ML AVERAGES
SB ATTEMPTS WITH RUNNER ON FIRST ONLY
SACRIFICE BUNT TRIES BY PITCHERS ONLY
MVP IN 1990
1990 PERFORMANCE AND ALTERNATIVES
1990 | |||||||
RICKEY+ | |||||||
"CECIL" | |||||||
"VINCE" |
STUDY METHOD: USE MODEL TO GET 1990 OAKLAND SCORING
WITH EACH OF THE 4 ALTERNATIVES AS LEADOFF BATTER
USE 1990 AS THE BASELINE
COMPARE SCORING RESULTING FROM THE OTHER 3
LINEUP:
LEADOFF (4 ALTERNATIVES)
LANSFORD
CANSECO
McGWIRE
D. HENDERSON
STEINBACH
JOSE
WEISS
GALLEGO
SCORING COMPARISON TO 1990 BASELINE
RICKEY+ | ||
"CECIL" | ||
"VINCE" |
EXTRA 43 SB, 9 CS HAS LITTLE EFFECT (RICKEY+)
SLOW RUNNER, NO SB TRIES WOULD COST 1 GAME PER SEASON
("CECIL") BASED ON 10 RUNS PER WIN
RICKEY'S BATTING PERFORMANCE WORTH 7-8 WINS COMPARED TO "VINCE"
SET AL RECORD FOR TEAM Ks IN A SEASON: 1185
METHOD OF ANALYSIS: COMPARE MODEL ESTIMATES OF TEAM
SCORING AT VARIOUS LEVELS OF STRIKEOUTS
USE 1991 FULL SEASON STATS (PHILLIPS, WHITAKER,
TRAMMELL, FIELDER, TETTLETON, FRYMAN, DEER, INCAVIGLIA, CUYLER)
AS THE BASELINE
SCALE BACK Ks TO 747 (TWINS Ks, LOWEST IN ML)
NO STRIKEOUTS AT ALL
ALSO ESTIMATE TWINS SCORING WITH 1185 Ks
SCORING COMPARISONS TO BASELINE (ASSUMES ONLY CHANGE
IS IN NUMBER OF STRIKEOUTS)
TIGERS: 747 Ks | ||
TIGERS: 0 Ks | ||
TWINS: 1185 Ks |
USE TEAM CONSISTING OF ALL THE SAME BATTER
AL 1993 AVERAGE (LEAGUE TOTALS/14/9)
RICKEY HENDERSON IN 1990
AL 93 AVG | |||||||
RICKEY 1990 |
COMPARE TO BASELINE SCORING LEVELS:
RUNNER ADVANCES ON EVERY NON-K OUT (1984-92 AVERAGE
IS ABOUT 50%)
REDUCE BATTING AVERAGE (WALKS UNCHANGED) IN (2,0)
ONLY UNTIL SCORING IS REDUCED TO BASELINE LEVEL
REPEAT PROCESS ASSUMING NEVER ADVANCE ON NON-K OUTS,
AND INCREASE BATTING AVERAGE IN (2,0) ONLY UNTIL SCORING INCREASES
TO BASELINE
BASELINE SCORING
ALL 1993 AL AVG TEAM: 5.032 RUNS PER GAME
ALL 1990 RICKEY TEAM: 10.357 RUNS PER GAME
SCORING WHEN ALWAYS ADVANCE (2,0) -->
(3,1) ON NONK OUTS
ALL AL AVERAGE TEAM
* WITH NO CHANGE IN BATTING AVG: 5.071 R/G (INCREASE
OF 6 RUNS PER 162 GAMES)
* A DECREASE IN BATTING AVERAGE OF 22% IN (2,0)
WILL REDUCE SCORING TO THE BASELINE LEVEL
ALL 1990 RICKEY HENDERSON TEAM
* WITH NO CHANGE IN BATTING AVG: 10.432 R/G (INCREASE
OF 12 RUNS PER 162 GAMES)
* A DECREASE IN BATTING AVERAGE OF 12% IN (2,0)
WILL REDUCE SCORING TO THE BASELINE LEVEL
SCORING WHEN NEVER ADVANCE (2,0) --> (3,1)
ON NONK OUTS
ALL AL AVERAGE TEAM
* WITH NO CHANGE IN BATTING AVG: 4.987 R/G (DECREASE
OF 7 RUNS PER 162 GAMES)
* A INCREASE IN BATTING AVERAGE OF 20% IN (2,0)
WILL RAISE SCORING TO THE BASELINE LEVEL
ALL 1990 RICKEY HENDERSON TEAM
* WITH NO CHANGE IN BATTING AVG: 10.265 R/G (DECREASE
OF 15 RUNS PER 162 GAMES)
* A INCREASE IN BATTING AVERAGE OF 13% IN (2,0)
WILL RAISE SCORING TO THE BASELINE LEVEL
AL 93 AVG | |||||||
" -22% | |||||||
" +20% | |||||||
RICKEY 1990 | |||||||
" -12% | |||||||
" +13% |
HIGH SB/FAST RUNNERS DO NOT INCREASE SCORING BY
VERY MUCH
A RICKEY HENDERSON ADDS ABOUT 1 WIN A SEASON COMPARED TO A NO SB/SLOW RUNNER
A LOW OBP/HIGH SB PLAYER DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
TO THE OFFENSE, AND HURTS SCORING WHEN BATTING LEADOFF
HIGH STRIKEOUT TEAMS SCORE LESS OTHER THINGS
BEING EQUAL
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 2 WINS PER SEASON BETWEEN 1991 TIGERS AND 1991 TWINS FROM DIFFERENCE IN TEAM STRIKEOUTS
BUT TIGERS OFFENSE DEPENDS ON HR (LED 1991 AL WITH
209, 32 MORE THAN #2) AND HIGH OBP DUE TO WALKS (LED WITH 699,
52 MORE), BOTH OF WHICH LEAD TO HIGHER NUMBER OF STRIKEOUTS
ADVANCING RUNNER IN (2,0) IS WORTH SOME DECREASE
IN BATTING AVERAGE
ROUGH ESTIMATE: FOR AN AVERAGE PLAYER, INCREASING THE ADVANCEMENT PROBABILITY BY 0.5 OVERCOMES 20% DECREASE IN BA IN (2,0) SITUATION
FOR BETTER HITTERS, THE CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN BA IS SMALLER; FOR POORER HITTERS, THAT DECREASE IS LARGER
ANALYSIS COULD BE REPEATED FOR SPECIFIC PLAYERS IN A REAL LINEUP
OBJECTIVE DURING GAME MAY BE TO SCORE ONE RUN RATHER
THAN MAXIMIZE SCORING