Stock Talks at the Arlington Library

You can download the Adobe Acrobat files (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader, which is probably already on your computer and is a free download from Adobe web side) of the PowerPoint presentations. There are two files for each one that you can download:

1. Slides and Notes: Together they provide a reasonable version of the presentation although the notes are hardly a script of the talk.
2. Slides only: The text slides for the presentations should be readable in the slides and notes files, but the graphs may be too small to be seen clearly. If so, download these files also. The slides should appear larger on your screen, and if you print them, they should be full size and be quite readable.

April 3, 2004:
There were two primary topics. The first followed up on part of January's talk (not available for download) that showed the "January Barometer" has worked in that the direction that stocks move in January do a good job of forecasting how they will move the rest of the year and in the following 3, 6, and 12 months. This talk asks and answers the question of whether other months are also good barometers. The second half of the talk discusses methods of investing in stocks that are components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The focus is on three books published in the last few years, and there is also a discussion of recent changes in the Dow and my Dow Turnarounds method of investing in the Dow stocks.

• Slides and Notes:
• Slides only:

November 15, 2003:
Talk discussed timing bond mutual funds and portfolio management using timing and rebalancing. One feature was examining how the methods would have worked since 1963. In particular, performance during the last "secular bear market" in 1966-81 was highlighted The talk also included updates on the two of the previous talks I had made there on the Dow Turnarounds and market timing.

• Slides and Notes:
• Slides only:

June 28, 2003:
The main topic was portfolio rebalancing. The talk also included updates on the two previous talks I had made there on the Dow Turnarounds and market timing.

• Slides and Notes:
• Slides only:

March 8, 2003:
Stock market timing was the main topic. (Since that term has now been tainted by the Spitzer and SEC investigations, the talk subject should now be considered to be tactical asset allocation. The methods presented are definitely NOT those that have been found to be objectionable by the investigators.) The talk covers why you might want to do it and how you might do it. There is a discussion of some specific simple timing models. One is preferred, and the rules for all of them are shown.

• Slides and Notes:
• Slides only: