Dow Dividend Starting Months/Holding Periods
Some things you should know about the returns shown in the table
below:
- The returns shown are the average (compound) annual returns for the
1, 2, and 3 year periods starting at the end of each month from
December 1978 through December 1995.
- The returns are based on PRICE CHANGES ONLY. Dividends are
not included. This is different from the results presented by
most others.
- The analysis below ignores commissions.
- Tax consequences are not included since they vary by investors.
- Any spin-offs or distributions, such as Sear's spin-off off
Allsate in 1995, are treated by assuming that the shares received
are sold at the end of the month in which they are received and the
proceeds are used to buy more of the Dow stock that had the spin-off.
This is a different assumption than that used on the Historical Returns page.
- It is assumed that an equal dollar amount is put into each stock in
the strategy using the closing prices on the last day of the month.
- BTD5: (Beat the Dow 5) - The O'Higgins and Downes strategy
of buying the five lowest priced of the ten highest yielding Dow
stocks.
- High10: Buy the ten highest yielding stocks in the
Dow.
Start Hold for 1 year Hold for 2 years Hold for 3 years
Month BTD5 High10 BTD5 High10 BTD5 High10
Jan 12.95% 11.64% 15.33% 12.47% 14.23% 12.08
Feb 15.12% 13.11% 15.98% 13.86% 14.64% 12.62
Mar 13.90% 11.56% 16.09% 12.91% 13.87% 11.39
Apr 14.84% 11.98% 16.32% 13.08% 13.75% 11.10
May 15.90% 12.20% 15.14% 12.55% 12.72% 11.07
Jun 14.83% 12.77% 14.88% 12.79% 12.99% 11.16
Jul 16.56% 13.42% 14.84% 12.60% 13.53% 11.69
Aug 16.70% 13.67% 15.91% 12.92% 15.44% 12.33
Sep 15.67% 13.81% 15.96% 13.22% 15.63% 12.60
Oct 17.65% 15.10% 17.65% 13.98% 16.47% 13.42
Nov 17.86% 15.81% 17.99% 15.01% 15.79% 13.65
Dec 17.54% 14.51% 18.69% 14.92% 16.21% 13.87
From the data in the table, we see that the two year holding
period is in general best and that the best month to buy at
the end of is December. This assumes the use of the BTD5 strategy
rather than the High10 strategy.
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